Last week Cuba was hit by two disasters, one natural and the other a man-made own goal.
A hurricane hit the island, and the electricity grid repeatedly collapsed. Cuba is on a hurricane path and there is nothing that can be done about that.
There is a lot that could have been done to prevent the collapse of the power grid. What was at times a total countrywide blackout was the result of poor maintenance of power stations, shortages of spare parts and lack of fuel. Better maintenance of power stations and pursuing policies to grow the economy would have prevented disaster.
The big problem is that the Cuban economy is so poor that it cannot even afford to pay for oil.
The blackout might have deeply scared the country’s communist government. They must worry that the masses could come on to the streets in protest and that the country could go the same way as the Eastern European communist dictatorships in the 1990s.
Protests were not as widespread last week as they were in the nationwide demonstrations two and three years ago. But people came on to the streets banging pots and pans and shouting that they were without food, water, and electricity.
Cuba’s President, Miguel Díaz-Canel, went on TV, unusually wearing military fatigues to look tough, and warned of the need to maintain “discipline”, saying that those disturbing the peace would be “severely” punished.
Deep frustration
The blackouts have contributed to deep frustration across the country over shortages and poor service delivery. Ten million people, more than 90 percent of the population, were without power for much of last week. No power meant food rotted in fridges, many could not cook, and there was no water, as the electrically-driven pumps were not working. And people could not charge their cell phones and could therefore not communicate with each other. They could not use the internet.
Even before the collapse of the grid, the government had ordered schools to close and non-essential workers to go home, according to Reuters.
Life in Cuba is very tough, with minimal economic growth and shortages of basic goods. Last year the inflation rate was 30 percent. Even the health system, praised by the country’s supporters, is under extreme stress due to shortages of medicines and long waits to see doctors.
As has happened in other communist countries, many have been forced to flee to avoid the harsh conditions and lack of opportunity. It is estimated that Cuba has lost around a million of its people: a little above ten percent of the population, many of them skilled. About seven million people have fled Latin America’s other rigidly socialist country, Venezuela, which has a population of about 47 million.
What is extraordinary about Cuba is that communist rule has lasted 64 years, a far longer time than that of the post-war dictatorships in Eastern Europe, but shorter than that of the Soviet Union and North Korea. Severe repression, nationalism in the face of US sanctions and hence some tolerance of hardship, and the fact that the people have the basic necessities could account for this.
What has also been crucial to the survival of communism in Cuba since the revolution is the generosity of its allies, particularly Russia, until the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. That sent the Cuban economy into a tailspin in which GDP decreased by more than a third in two years.
Far-reduced scale
Russia has continued to support Cuba, although on a far-reduced scale. This assistance has been further cut since Moscow launched its “special military operation” in Ukraine.
When Hugo Chavez took power in Venezuela in 1999, Cuba found a socialist supporter. But with its economic problems, Venezuela has cut its sale of oil at subsidized prices to Cuba by half.
In large part, the immediate cause of Cuba’s present crisis is its abandonment by its progressive socialist friends. Even China is not too keen to help, as it has had to reschedule Cuban debt, and after years of support might no longer see the strategic need to do so. Havana has failed to undertake the sort of reforms that brought about Chinese successes.
South Africa helps Havana a bit under the guise of paying for Cuban doctors to work at our hospitals and mechanics who work on army trucks. A hefty share of what governments pay to their Cuban guests is taken by Havana to bolster its coffers, but our contribution must amount to small change.
The Cuban government has been quick to blame the collapse of the grid on what the minister of energy and mines, Vicente de la O Levy, said was the “brutal” US economic embargo on Cuba. In response to Cuba’s nationalisation of US companies, the US imposed an economic embargo in 1960 on all goods except food and medicines. Over the years, the embargo has been eased and US citizens are able to visit the country, but the embargo remains in place. That allows Cuba to blame the US for most of its problems.
Had Havana implemented the sort of reforms that would grow the economy, like unleashing the private sector, Cuba might well have been able to finance its oil imports and grow. The problem is that Cuba’s reforms have been slow and partial. The government appears set against comprehensive reform, and even in the face of crisis does not want to undertake the types of change that have a chance of stimulating growth.
Large leaps
There have been reforms that in Cuban terms represent large leaps. People were allowed to own cell phones in 2008, international travel restrictions on citizens have been eased, it is easier for private individuals to access construction materials, and a real estate market was opened up. Private property and business are allowed on a limited scale.
But there are price controls on a range of goods. These cause shortages and in some cases the government resorts to rationing. Private enterprise is permitted, but this is not allowed in the case of what are deemed “fundamental” industries. So private business tends to be restricted to micro and small business, while the state dominates industry, trade, and finance.
The absence of fundamental reform is the prime reason the Cuban communists have messed up. Their rule could now be on the line. Friendly countries are abandoning support for communism in the Caribbean, and it might now be a question of how things will unravel.
Some in Pretoria might be disappointed at the prospect of change in Cuba, but after the collapse of the country’s power grid, there just might be joy on the streets of Havana.
[Image: flunkey0 from Pixabay]
The views of the writer are not necessarily the views of the Daily Friend or the IRR.
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