This week, three DA ministers are in Davos as part of the SA delegation headed by President Cyril Ramaphosa. That shows that the ANC is making good use of the DA.
Many of the big bosses at Davos have taken a favourable view of the GNU. They view the formation of the GNU as a sign that the ANC is pragmatic and that the DA will help manage things better. The GNU has helped strengthen the ANC’s international credentials and the country’s market ratings.
That is why the ANC is keen to put the DA ministers on show at Davos, although it has seen to it that the party has minimal influence in the coalition at home.
The DA has been given six ministerial posts out of a Cabinet of 40, but no real power over broad policy. DA and ANC views on most issues are wide apart, leaving minimal room for compromise. In Europe, parties in a coalition tend to be reasonably close to each other on key policies, and even then, it can be tricky to make things work.
While the DA has been in the Cabinet, the ANC has pushed for the implementation of key pieces of legislation that are part of its National Democratic Revolution. This has shown up the DA’s glaring lack of influence and the ANC’s commitment to its left and its lack of pragmatism.
The passage of the Basic Education Laws Amendment Act (BELA) allows the national government to make changes in the languages used by state schools. That has set off alarm bells in much of the Afrikaans community, who fear the fast erosion of their language as a medium of instruction. The Employment Equity Amendment Act, when implemented, will ensure ministerial imposition of targets for racial employment quotas across most of the economy.
The DA does not believe in quotas, but here it is part of a government that has racial engineering as a key priority.
While the state does not have the resources to implement something as gigantic as the National Health Insurance (NHI) project, the ANC might just try to preserve its reputation as a revolutionary party. The Cabinet is about to meet to draw up its medium-term plans and with the enabling legislation for the NHI passed, the ANC is under internal pressure to show its commitment.
The goal of the DA in joining the GNU was to keep the two radical parties, uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) out of power. If the ANC is intent on pursuing policies that the two radical parties would pursue, what is the real point in keeping the ANC’s two fellow comrade parties from power?
These acts will increasingly face legal challenges, but the success of these cannot be guaranteed. And the Treasury’s resistance to grand schemes is also not a guarantee that the ANC might not still try to fund the NHI.
The clearing-house mechanism to resolve disputes between the parties appears to be more symbolic than providing any real means to a narrow position.
The DA had to give the GNU its best effort, as the argument that it was worthwhile keeping the radical parties out of government has merit.
So, what should the DA do, now that the party has returned from the holidays realising that the GNU might turn into a massive liability?
Operate more smoothly
In response to its sidelining, the DA could refuse to cooperate on the small stuff that allows a government to operate more smoothly. DA ministers might do more of what they want and not take instructions from the Cabinet and the President. Last year John Steenhuisen usefully pointed out to the ANC that Russia was the ANC’s ally, not that of the country.
Last year the Federal Chair of the DA, Helen Zille, warned of “a red line” over BELA, but nothing has happened. At some stage the DA will have to act on its word and pull out of the GNU over the ANC having crossed a “red line.”
It would be best if the “red line” is over one issue, rather than over the general direction of travel of the GNU, which might not be well understood as a sound motivation. Implementation of the NHI would be such a single issue, as it encapsulates ANC profligacy, ideology, and failures.
It could also create a “red line” over the delays and lack of depth of economic reform.
It is probably best if the red lines are not announced ahead of time, so the timing can be decided by the DA and the element of surprise retained. Threats to pull out can only be used once and might not work to stop the ANC from taking a particular course. But the ANC might say, let’s talk about your issue.
The DA does have to worry that its participation in the GNU will come back to bite the party badly at the next elections. It will be virtually impossible to get credit from the electorate for running its ministries well. It is more likely to be blamed for the poor economy and high unemployment.
Ministerial gravy train
The DA will also be punished for its participation in the GNU as a way of getting onto the ministerial gravy train. Ministerial posts mean higher salaries, the prospect of a generous government pension, nights at Davos, and free housing and lots of free meals. The DA is bound to be punished for this, because being part of an ANC government raises these sorts of suspicions.
Next year, the DA could find itself being blamed for all that is wrong in the metros, just for being partners with the ANC at national level. Even though the GNU is at national, not local level, being part of the arrangement might mean that voters who are not fully familiar with the difference might blame the DA for water shortages.
The DA is probably well advised to break out of the GNU within the next year or so, but well before the next election. Even if this does cost the country the entry of either MK or the EFF into government, pulling out of the GNU is probably the most cautious option for the DA.
If the DA were to pull out of the GNU, there are two basic scenarios. One is that MK and the EFF would be brought into the coalition by the ANC. But, reaching a deal with these parties a year or two before elections could be tricky, as they will be keen to differentiate themselves from the ANC in the eyes of the voters.
What the DA might do is this. Instead of participating in the GNU it could vote with the ANC on motions of confidence and provide finance for the budget.
The GNU is not the only game for the DA if it hopes to have the means of leverage over the ANC.
[Image:B K Tekane]
The views of the writer are not necessarily the views of the Daily Friend or the IRR.
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