Since 1994, the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) has enjoyed direct access to policy and influence over the internal politics of the African National Congress (ANC). Its member unions have strongly resisted any efforts to reform themselves – but if they don’t change their approach, they may find themselves slipping from a position of strength to one of almost total irrelevance.
Cosatu is of course the most important labour union group in the country, and continues to define many areas of labour relations. For the purposes of this argument, my references to unions can be taken to mean Cosatu and other destructive unions such as AMCU, rather than the more moderate Unions of FEDUSA and Solidarity, who perhaps provide an alternative path forward for the mainstream unions.
A typical example of union power was seen at the beginning of June. Government had announced that it planned to open schools on the first day of the month.
On Sunday 31 May, just as the government was set to go ahead, teachers’ unions met with basic education minster Angie Motshekga to voice their concerns about the reopening. What followed was one of the more embarrassing policy reversals of recent years. Government scrambled to reverse its decision, issuing a brief press statement and only managing to put together a press briefing the next day, several hours after schools were already meant to be open.
Likewise, union pressure has been a major part of government’s disastrous efforts to keep South African Airways afloat, despite years of dysfunction, and even as Covid-19 decimated the economy and government finances. Yet, anxious to avoid antagonising its allies, the government has failed to reform the airline, or sell it. It appears that more bailouts are in store (by whatever name one wants to give them). Such is the power of Cosatu unions.
Brink of desolation
With more than a decade of poor economic policy, irresponsible unions and now the Covid-19 crisis, South Africa’s economy stands on the brink of desolation. Its state-owned enterprises are in ruins and, to make matters worse, the government is staring at the dark abyss of a debt trap, with the IMF predicting the gross government debt-to-GDP ratio will reach 85.6% by the end of 2021. Though once considered unlikely, a Zimbabwe-style total collapse of the economy and fiscus is now being taken as a serious possibility by many in the financial world.
A collapse of that scale would drive inflation up and lead to 50%+ levels of unemployment (Zimbabwe sits at around 90%), or, in short, a destruction of the workforce. The problem for the unions is evident here: it’s difficult to be a labour movement without labour to move. Similarly, a collapse of the government’s fiscal capacity would leave tens if not hundreds thousands of public-sector union members unemployed, or otherwise collecting increasingly worthless pay packets.
If this turns out to be South Africa’s current growth trajectory, there is no future for organised labour. A failed state doesn’t suit labour any more than an anti-labour state would.
Of course, another path exists for South Africa, and it is one of reform. In this case, the ANC or some new government would need to make significant changes to our economic and labour policies. This would put beyond their reach any chance the unions might have to be the drivers of reform, and it might well see the decimation of the unions, as was seen under British premier Margaret Thatcher in the 1980s.
Unchecked union power
Much has been written by liberal thinkers about the tremendous damage that has been inflicted on South Africa’s society and economy by unchecked union power, from the protection of bad teachers by the South African Democratic Teachers’ Union to the harm inflicted on the mining sector by violent strikes. In many of the problems confronting South Africa, there is a link with unions.
South Africa cannot be reformed without significant changes to labour law that would enable labour flexibility and curb prevent destructive and violent strikes. Overly restrictive clauses on dismissal deters companies from taking on new labour, and violent ‘action’ allows unpopular or destructive strikes to continue indefinitely at great cost, as we have seen in the mining sector.
The point here is that, either by Thatcher-style reform or economic calamity, the end is in sight for the unsustainable way Cosatu has operated since 1994.
As any astute historian or political leader can attest, one of the most important skills an institution can develop is knowing when to change with the times and when to hold fast.
For South Africa’s unions, the time to change is slipping away, and Cosatu needs to act soon or risk being swept away by the tide of history.
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