One cannot understand South Africa without understanding its dominant political party – the African National Congress (ANC).
One cannot understand the ANC without understanding its North Star, the National Democratic Revolution (NDR). The NDR ideology has been advanced by the ANC’s alliance partner, the South African Communist Party (SACP).
One cannot fault Marxism for its deep thinkers.
The ideology is best explained by author Dr Anthea Jeffery (Institute of Race Relations). The idea includes the slow pursuit of race-based policies and nationalisation of the economy over time.
If it were pursued quickly, opposing forces would notice such abrupt moves and it would meet with resistance. In NDR talk, that is known as ‘Left-Wing Adventurism’.
According to the ideology, then, it is better to introduce race-based policies gently (in 2003), as it did in the case of Black Economic Empowerment (BEE). 20 years later, extreme and crippling race-based quotas are only, at that point, a matter of detail as companies have been accepting them for a long time.
Conversely, if the party moves too slowly on such policies or even embraces market reforms, that could be considered ‘Right-Wing Opportunism’.
Every day, the party assess the ‘balance of forces’ and with what speed it can advance the NDR.
Slowly, the country will come under full control of the state, from ports to television stations, the argument goes.
2024
The ANC lost its national majority for the first time in May 2024. Instead of embracing its far-left breakaways, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and uMKhonto We Sizwe (MK), it signed a coalition deal with the pro-market Democratic Alliance (DA).
Many hailed this as a moment of liberal reform.
In short, there have been some green shoots of a more liberalised economy and better governed ministries, yet the ANC pursued strong NDR policies in late 2024/early 2025, including threatening property rights and private education.
It will have assessed that the ‘balance of forces’ were in favour of it pursuing the NDR more aggressively, as it was not meeting with resistance.
It would be right to assert that the DA has been carefully and mindfully kept away from portfolios of security, justice and the economy.
A view consistent with analysing the NDR, then, reads that the ANC mindfully chose to concede portfolios it gave to the DA, knowing it would still have its hands firmly on the levers of power. The NDR would remain firmly on course.
The DA could achieve full marks in all its six portfolios and ordinary people might not notice a difference to their lives. The national portfolios the party holds include Home Affairs and Digital Technology.
Perhaps the first time the NDR met with internal resistance was when the DA blocked a hike in Value Added Tax (VAT) in the February 2025 budget: also the first time in SA’s democratic history the budget process was not a formality.
It is widely agreed that the DA learned how to be tough for the first time and hold firm – a muscle it has since continued to flex.
It should extend that flex to achieve what I will take the liberty to call ‘Structural Cracks’ in the NDR at the 2026 budget and beyond. That may include devolution of the powers of policing to the Western Cape province or long concessions for port and rail infrastructure. A deal of this nature was almost agreed before the 2025 budget.
Those would be changes which would be very difficult for the ANC to ‘take back’ if it one day gained a national majority.
The ANC is very good at playing politics and can create the illusion that it is conceding in certain areas. At one point it seemed to be conceding on equity equivalents to BEE.
It may therefore devolve some limited powers of policing, or concede some railways, for a limited time. Those, I will describe as ‘Topical Cracks’ in the NDR.
Certain operators within the party will likely try to double-cross the DA if it refuses to pass the budget without the full devolution of policing.
It should prepare for a battle, therefore, of a similar or greater magnitude to finally get its hands on the ability to handle crime in the province, with no ifs and buts. This is difficult. Other provinces may demand the same treatment, but may not be ready.
Forward
There is recent news of an improved economic outlook. Some investment fundamentals have indeed improved, but this will not make a dent in what is the world’s highest unemployment rate.
One wonders if the ANC is trying to engineer its way back to 51% in 2029 – 2% or 3% growth could be enough to excite its vast sympathetic voter base. Meanwhile, when it returns to 51%, it would not have made fundamental sacrifices regarding the levers of power.
I do not know to what extent this ideology has penetrated a generation of younger ANC leaders.
Yet I am aware that a small cluster of pragmatic MPs are still around in the ANC. They may be described as social democrats. I do not know to what extent this group can gain the balance of power in a future ANC.
If they were to form a party of their own, I am confident such a party could push 20% in a national election, and would be a natural coalition bedfellow for the DA.
Author Nicholas Lorimer makes the point that SA lacks a genuine centre-left political party – one that is developmentalist.
Cracks
There are genuine weaknesses in the ANC’s NDR, including that it does not have control of an efficient police and military. It has lost the Western Cape province. Two other major provinces may be lost by 2029.
I am confident that many more municipalities will be in opposition hands following the Local Government Elections (LGEs) of 2026.
These ‘opposition held’ provinces and councils – dotted across the country – diffuse power away from the centre and showcase opposition good governance.
The ANC tends to be hopeless in opposition, and it is likely it can lose these councils ‘irreversibly’.
A formal scrapping of the Expropriation Act will likely see off that threat for a long period of time, given how long parliamentary processes can take.
The ANC will have viewed its decision in 2024 to govern with a liberal party as a continuation of its slow walk to communist nirvana. Liberal parties are not known for their tough leaders putting up a fight.
In August 2024, ANC MP Mmamaloko Kubayi stated that the deal with the DA was a strategic retreat from the NDR, akin to Lenin’s New Economic Policy (NEP) of 1921.
Indeed, a deal with the far left would have been the ‘Left Wing Adventurist’ option. Forces in society may have brought down that government.
The ANC has never hidden its intention to pursue this policy. This is not pursuit of a 21st century style communism, perhaps of the Chinese type, that will build world beating state led businesses, turn the SA into a factory floor and lift millions out of poverty.
SA needs liberal reforms coupled with genuine developmentalist policies. Defeating, or at least cracking, the NDR, is required for SA to progress in bringing down its unemployment rate.
If it so chooses, a society may have a chance at correcting market policies which may have gone astray. Wherever one is on the political spectrum – it is very difficult for a country to reverse its way back out of far-left policies such as property expropriation or hyperinflation.
I have been made aware on many occasions that SA’s business elites do not understand this NDR, and fewer outsiders do.
Certain brands of Marxism have mutated and survived into the 21st century through canny means.
Defeating them requires canny forces on the other side to hold their ground.
[Image: Clker-Free-Vector-Images from Pixabay]
The views of the writer are not necessarily the views of the Daily Friend or the IRR.
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