Is South Africa doomed? Many think it is. Those who believe the end is nigh share a bleak but increasingly common outlook. In their telling, South Africa’s decline is not only severe: it is irreversible.
In this interpretation, today’s trendlines are extrapolated in a straight line. They point towards a final destination that looks eerily like our northern neighbour, Zimbabwe: hollowed-out institutions. Permanent power cuts. Hyperinflation and economic ruin. An absence of development, never mind maintenance. Entropy gnawing at historic architecture that represents a high point of development achieved decades ago. And millions of people on the run, seeking better fortunes elsewhere.
South Africa is not there yet, but the signs are visible: stagnant growth, decaying infrastructure, worsening crime, a failing education system, and policy confusion on every major front. Most worrying of all is the erosion of institutional capability, what the IRR has long warned is the deepest danger of all.
If these trends are not reversed, a Zimbabwean outcome may not just be possible, it is likely.
Zimbabwe’s GDP per capita today is about $1,300 – roughly a quarter of South Africa’s – and unemployment is estimated at over 80%. Once a regional breadbasket, Zimbabwe now depends on food imports and international aid. A country with more than 16 million people has just 1.2 million formally employed workers. The economy is so dollarised and fragile that basic financial planning is nearly impossible. The wealthy few that remain barricade themselves behind high walls in dwindling enclaves of functioning electricity, water and safety.
Is this what awaits us?
Sober analysis
It can be, but it doesn’t have to be. There is another view, one grounded in sober analysis and hard data. This alternative view begins with two facts.
First, the vast majority of South Africans are politically moderate. In our most recent polling, conducted in April 2025, we found that more than 70% of registered voters prioritise jobs, safety, education, and better service delivery. Only a small minority rank race, identity, or other culture-war issues as their top political priorities.
Most voters want pragmatic solutions and a better life for their families, not ideological purity or racial division. Our 2025 finding was not unique. It confirms what we (and others) have found in round after round of polling over many years.
Second, South Africa remains a functioning democracy. Elections are contested. Political parties can form and campaign. Voters can speak and organise freely. These institutions may be strained, but they are intact. And if democracy works – and if the population remains moderate – then the logic of democratic politics suggests that, eventually, moderate preferences will shape electoral outcomes.
This is already beginning to happen. The 2024 national elections saw the once so dominant African National Congress (ANC) lose its majority for the first time in three decades. New political formations are rising. Old parties are being forced to adapt. Contestation has returned to Parliament. Portfolio committees are challenging ministers, tax hikes are fiercely resisted, and – hard to believe – a corrupt minister has been sacked.
In our new politics, no single party calls the shots. To govern, parties have to work with other parties. This is hard. Coalitions are messy, after all, but they reflect voter intent, and they create the possibility of policy reform.
The real question, then, is not whether decline is possible. It clearly is. The question is whether it is inevitable.
The answer is no – if we act.
Strategic asset
The fact that a large moderate majority exists is a strategic asset. So is the fact that we have a robust civil society, a free press, and institutions like the IRR that put forward practical, sensible, pro-growth policy proposals.
South Africa does not lack a path out of trouble. It lacks political leadership willing to take it. But that too can change, especially if public opinion continues to move in a pragmatic, reformist direction.
Our Blueprints for Growth outline the steps: protect property rights, end race-based laws, fix the basics of governance, cut red tape, and open the economy to investment and entrepreneurship.
These policies would not just arrest decline, they would unlock growth, create jobs, and expand the horizons of opportunity of every South African, but especially the poor. South Africa’s future can be one where incomes are rising, jobs are plentiful, public services work and the future looks bright.
South Africa is not fated to become Zimbabwe. But neither is it guaranteed a better future. The direction we take will depend on what voters demand, what institutions deliver, and what ideas dominate the public square. It will also depend on the ability of organisations like the IRR to keep producing, defending, and promoting policies that work – and on whether enough citizens support that work.
We invite you to join the IRR’s Team #WhatSACanBe by signing the pledge on our website – and to help us make South Africa great.
[Image: Arek Socha from Pixabay]
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