Pakistan declared a two-day holiday in the capital Islamabad ahead of this weekend’s US-Iran talks on ending the conflict launched by the US and Israel at the end of February which has visited misery on many thousands of people in the Middle East and a record energy crisis on the world.
There is, and will likely remain, conflicting opinion on the strategic objectives of the US and Israel, and whether or to what extent they have been met. Most agree that the ceasefire remains tenuous.
Much will depend on the engagements in Islamabad this weekend between the two teams, one led by US Vice President JD Vance, and the other – reports suggest – likely co-led by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
Key sticking points include Israel’s ongoing attacks on Lebanon (or, more specifically, the Iran-backed Hezbollah forces based in Lebanon), the arrangements for reopening the key oil-supply conduit of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s nuclear ambitions and the US’s determination to curb them, Iran’s support for allies in the region, including Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis in Yemen, and Iran’s demand to be relieved of sanctions.
Vance is reported as saying yesterday before leaving the US: “If the Iranians are willing to negotiate in good faith, we’re certainly willing to extend the open hand.”
He warned, however: “If they’re going to try to play us, then they’re going to find the negotiating team is not that receptive.”
On the key issue of Lebanon, Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, posted on X: “The continuation of these actions [Israeli strikes] will render negotiations meaningless. Our fingers remain on the trigger. Iran will never abandon its Lebanese sisters and brothers.”
While US President Donald Trump said launching Operation Epic Fury was, in part, to make sure Iran “can never have a nuclear weapon”, he this week described Iran’s 10-point proposal, which includes a demand for international recognition of its enrichment rights, as “a workable basis on which to negotiate”.
On the question of Iran’s support for militant groupings in the region, the BBC notes: “At a time when the Iranian economy is buckling, many Iranians would also like to see their government spending less on foreign adventurism and more on making their lives easier. But there’s little sign yet that Iran is ready to give up on its allies.”
This has been identified as a key sticking point in the coming talks.
Last evening, Trump warned in an interview with the New York Post: “We have a reset going. We’re loading up the ships with the best ammunition, the best weapons ever made – even better than what we did previously and we blew them apart.
“And if we don’t have a deal, we will be using them, and we will be using them very effectively.”
He added: “We’re going to find out in about 24 hours. We’re going to know soon.”
In Pakistan, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has said in a televised address that the talks between the US and Iran are a “make-or-break moment”, and said his government would do its best to ensure the peace process succeeded.
[Image: By Tahsin Shah – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=51280208]
Sources: BBC, The Guardian, Associated Press