Media sources have never been more diverse, but are we better-informed?
The world order is being twisted into a new configuration. Rather than overly indulging idealistic hopes, we must realistically assess trade-offs.
It suddenly seems much more likely that the war in Ukraine could soon end. Will this lead to Russia’s economy becoming more integrated into western supply chains than ever?
Realists could see that as the best-case outcome, whereas many idealists would rather prioritise ethical principles and hope to see Russia, or at least its leaders, punished for their country’s brutal invasion of Ukraine. Which view would you want to prevail? That is, are you more of a realist or an idealist?
Most news reporters have leftist leanings, and journalism is the sort of calling that appeals to idealists. It can also be much easier for them to satisfy the cravings of idealists by validating their biases than for a realist, who seeks objectively grounded insights. Also, it is hard to develop an objective world view that spans politics; development economics; social justice; and international relations.
For a realist to then keep such a worldview up to date is particularly difficult. Just consider the Middle East today.
IRGC control
Should the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the world’s top sponsor of terrorism, be allowed to control the proceeds from Iran’s oil exports? On the one hand, this is clearly a truly horrific idea. The IRGC seeks to wreak havoc across the region and beyond.
Nor can this group of fanatical killers make any legitimate claim to govern Iran. They have butchered thousands of unarmed Iranians for peacefully protesting, and attacked most of their neighbours, while closing a highly strategic international waterway.
Various influential voices have spoken of forcefully removing the IRGC from power, but this is extremely unlikely as it would require a major land war with large-scale death and destruction. A more appealing two-step process would, at least initially, leave the IRGC in power while significantly restricting its access to the proceeds from Iran’s oil exports. If Iran’s oil-exporting capacity were so severely damaged that it would take many years to recover, the world would be much safer and the IRGC’s grip on power would erode.
However, while there are various options for damaging Iran’s oil exporting capacity or seeking to control it, they all risk the IRGC responding by attacking its neighbours’ energy production and exporting facilities.
Bluffing
It seems quite likely that President Trump anticipated that the IRGC’s supplies of missiles and drones would be rapidly depleted, to the point that by now they would be willing to negotiate meaningful concessions. Perhaps that is the case, and the IRGC leaders are bluffing.
Alternatively, their supplies of missiles and drones might now be plentiful. It is possible that the Russians and Chinese are rapidly resupplying them.
It is also possible that Ukraine is supplying Iran’s neighbours and the US with its highly cost-effective anti-drone and anti-missile systems. Reports indicate that the UAE has imported such systems from the US, Israel, and Ukraine.
We don’t know what Trump’s advisers told him. Yet we do know that last June, when Trump ended combat operations against Iran after 12 days, he did so against the advice of his Israeli counterpart. Trump similarly overruled Israeli views when he initiated a ceasefire last month.
There are many media voices that are quick to criticise Trump, but most avoid doing so if it requires praising Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s judgement. Trump is currently the most consequential actor on the world stage. Probably the only person who is more controversial, and disliked, is Netanyahu.
The world would be a better place if audiences had ample appetites for objective and thorough reporting and analysis. Unfortunately, few people have sufficient time and interest to appreciate the complexities that define Middle Eastern politics.
Deficient
The result is that reports and analyses about the Iran war are remarkably deficient. It doesn’t help that Trump has become a master at producing headline-making soundbites, for instance, “That was just a love tap.”
Should Trump risk much of the Middle East oil production being taken offline for many months or even years, to prevent the IRGC again being flush with cash? It seems that the UAE’s leaders would support that risky option. What does that tell us?
There are two related differences between the UAE and its neighbours. The UAE is very good at economic development, and its economy is meaningfully integrated into global supply chains through adding value.
This makes the UAE both the region’s role model nation and the IRGC’s top regional foe after Israel. Further complications include the various national rivalries across the region as well as Sunni-Shiite tensions. There are also other countries, such as Qatar and Turkey, making preparations to exploit the plight of Gazans if or when the IRGC’s influence is further tamed.
We have more news sources than ever. This makes the few that challenge our biases and assumptions essential.
[Image: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8c/Commissioning_of_112_IRGCN_vessels_%2832%29.jpg]
The views of the writer are not necessarily those of the Daily Friend or the IRR.
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