On Sunday evening, when President Cyril Ramaphosa addressed the nation on illegal immigration, he had two tasks.

The first was to ensure credibility in immigration control, and the second was to show leadership in the face of the threat of mass violent attacks on foreigners. In carrying out the first, he had an almost impossible job due to the corruption in law enforcement.

He did show a degree of leadership on Sunday in recognising corruption as a big problem in enforcing immigration laws and issuing stern warnings about vigilantism. And he did come up with a plan, albeit heavily reliant on reducing corruption.

But Ramaphosa and the ANC are far from showing that they are in control of the immigration crisis.

Ramaphosa’s leadership faltered when he failed to come up with a rapid and decisive response to the deepening immigration crisis a month ago. His address to the nation on Sunday came more than a month after the first mass marches against immigrants in our major cities.

Immigration has once again exploded onto the political agenda, and the ANC is struggling to respond. Outbreaks of mass violence against immigrants and a foreign policy crisis could be in the offing. African countries like Ghana, Nigeria, and Malawi have been outraged by the reassertion of xenophobia in SA and the lack of action of our government.

The threats against foreigners come directly from the environment created by the mass demonstrations of increasingly strident anti-immigration groups. Dedicated anti-immigrant groups like Operation Dudula and March on March are hitting a raw nerve in the country. Clearly, these groups must know that the time to get noticed is in winter, the season that tends to see trouble on the streets, and on the eve of an election.

These groups are also taking advantage of the weakness of the ANC and know that with its decline, a power vacuum is emerging.

Immigration is an easy issue upon which to mobilise. Many see Pakistanis, Bangladeshis, and Somalis running their own Spaza shops and ask why are they getting ahead of me?

And Zimbabweans, Malawians, and Mozambicans in a multitude of jobs trigger questions about why they are in work and we are not?

The post-1994 disaster on job creation on a massive scale lies behind a deep frustration that can readily be inflamed by those who wish to do so. Frustration gets challenged into multiple avenues, and immigrants are just a very easy target. Clearly, if we had a more charismatic President and a respected ANC, things might be different.

What also inflames resentment towards immigrants is that there is deep public distrust in the ability of the government to enforce the law, whether it be immigration or in other areas.  And hence, announcing new measures and an immigration crackdown does not do much to restore credibility and bring calm. If the Department of Home Affairs and the South African Police Service were corruption-free and there was faith that approvals to stay in the country were given on a fair basis, the immigration system would have credibility.

Even though the DA Minister of Home Affairs, Leon Schreiber, has been rooting out much corruption, what has happened in the past means public perception is that malfeasance continues. It will be a mammoth job to restore confidence in law enforcement.

On Sunday, Ramaphosa did a good job in warning against vigilantism and anti-immigration groups using “social media campaigns that spread misinformation, fake news, and lies about foreign nationals.”

And his concern, “that anti-foreigner sentiment is at times accompanied by tribal and ethnic slurs, insults, or attacks aimed at other South Africans” was well stated.

Ramaphosa has now promised a massive crackdown on illegal immigration with improved enforcement and tougher fines. What could undermine this effort is that it might just provide those who are corrupt with more opportunities for shakedowns.

There are new measures to control immigration in the offing, but how do you catch officials who are paid cash bribes?

Employers who hire illegal immigrants will face tougher fines. There is to be greater investment in modern technology, infrastructure, and personnel to secure borders. Immigration courts are to be established. An Intelligent Population Register with biometric data for every person in the country will be established.

One of the proposed measures is to impose maximum quotas for the employment of documented foreign nationals. Imposing employment quotas per sector bears a strong resemblance to central planning. So the government would decide how many foreigners can work in particular roles by sector.

Under this, foreigners might not be allowed to invest in, say, a spaza shop, although this would contribute to economic activity. And the numbers of foreigners allowed to work in restaurants might be restricted, although it might be difficult to recruit local waiters.

The world over, immigrants from certain countries are often attracted to work or set up business in specific sectors, in which few locals participate. Yet the government would not allow this. That might please the mob baying for curbs on migrants, but it would certainly not add to local economic activity.

In his speech, Ramaphosa was also out to calm the fury of other African countries like Ghana, Malawi, and Nigeria, which have sent aircraft to pick up their countrymen. There have not been many takers for these flights back home.

As part of the immigration plan, Ramaphosa will be sending emissaries to other African countries to explain the crackdown on illegal immigration and what is being done to counter xenophobia.

The emissaries probably won’t be telling the governments of Zimbabwe, Malawi, and Mozambique, countries from which many migrants come, that there are, at least, political limits to the number of immigrants SA can absorb. And if these governments wish to help ease the outburst of xenophobia, they could take measures to ensure they are not trapped in economic failure.

To expect Ramaphosa to step in and suddenly take control over the immigration issue is a step too far.  After all, the immigration crisis is largely the result of South Africa’s negligible economic growth and governance failures.

There will ultimately be far stricter controls over immigration; these might take a very drastic and destructive form. Because our law enforcement is poor and checking the backgrounds of immigrants from certain countries is close to impossible, the government might ultimately resort to the blunt tool of banning all migrants from certain countries.

There is now a danger that in the pressure of the moment to crackdown and appear tough in the face of threats of violence on the streets, some rash actions will be taken.

[Image: https://www.flickr.com/photos/governmentza/55196575798/]

The views of the writer are not necessarily the views of the Daily Friend or the IRR.

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Jonathan Katzenellenbogen is a Johannesburg-based freelance journalist. His articles have appeared on DefenceWeb, Politicsweb, as well as in a number of overseas publications. Katzenellenbogen has also worked on Business Day and as a TV and radio reporter and newsreader. He has a Master's degree in International Relations from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and an MBA from the MIT Sloan School of Management.