The Phala Phala impeachment process, the DA cabinet scramble and the upcoming election have all raised the temperature in the SA political pan. Voters are speculating, pundits are placing bets, and podcasters add some flavour.
‘Cyril Ramaphosa will go to jail over Phala Phala,” says political commentator Prince Mashele. It might not just be wishful thinking on Mashele’s part. On the SMWE podcast, he reminds Mpofu-Walsh that everyone thought Zuma was untouchable – until we saw him in the proverbial orange overalls and chains. ‘Secondly, Cyril Ramaphosa will not be impeached, mark my words.” Before Cyril Ramaphosa surprised everyone with his urgent interdict against the impeachment committee, Mashele predicted: “Cyril Ramaphosa will not sit, even for a second, before an impeachment committee. What he is doing is an exit strategy. He is buying time and closing gaps while he is still in office. I bet my last penny; it will not happen.” Mashele sketches a scenario in which Cyril will remain in office through the local government elections until he is removed by the ANC electoral conference next December. If, by some twist of fate, he is called before the impeachment committee, he will resign to prevent skeletons from being released from the closet. Mashele’s anti-ANC stance has to be viewed from the perspective of a man who has announced the formation of a new political movement, in which he will play a central role. It proposes to be a centre-left space that many have been waiting for – a place where middle-class moderate black voters can find a home, without sacrificing cultural roots. “Phala Phala? This thing is going to follow him into a prison cell, mark my words.”
When Cyril goes, who should be president? Names such as Paul Mashatile and Patrice Motsepe are in the mix, with a more exotic ingredient, Pieter Groenewald, being thrown in from right of centre. Groenwald, former leader of the FF Plus, became a presidential contender overnight as a result of a massive media campaign of speculative origin. Cornè Mulder, current leader of the FF Plus, who represents an opposing faction in the party, claimed National Intelligence was behind the ‘Groenewald for president’ campaign and that it was an attempt at sowing division. The team from the Daily Friend Show podcast took a skeptical view of this suggestion. “I was unsure whether I should say this, but I am going to say because why the hell not,’ began Hermann Pretorius: “Um, perhaps if you grew up in the home of the National Party’s Minister for Information from 1968 to 1978, whose career was ended by the information scandal regarding the purchasing of some publications like The Citizen, then perhaps this isn’t as far-fetched to your political sensibilities or imagination as other people might find it. If you grow up in the shadow of the apartheid era information infrastructure, then perhaps you have more wisdom than the rest of us, or perhaps you have more paranoia than the rest of us, whatever the case may be.” They surmised that the campaign might have originated from pro-Groenwald quarters. Pretorius, head of strategic communications for the IRR, spoke to the question of the GNU and how the new DA leadership might take it forward. He said he had personally spoken to Geordin Hill-Lewis about the issue and understood him to be pro-GNU. Further, the DA’s cabinet scramble showed that the DA was starting to see itself as ‘government’, not opposition, which was an important shift and indication.
Dr Frans Cronje of the Common Sense Podcast said he saw the new DA leadership as more ambivalent towards the GNU than the previous one and that it could go either way. He added that, in the more centrist camp of the ANC, there was also a sense that maybe they should have formed a minority government instead. In Gauteng, the ANC is forming alliances with the EFF and MK, for instance. These are interesting choices as a world outside the GNU means making hundreds of different coalition negotiations across various parties across the country. Cronje reminded Biznews that he predicted before the last election that there would be a GNU and that it would save the country, both of which came true. “The GNU has held us in a position from which we can still recover to become a thriving and successful emerging market. Whereas if you had put the EFF and MK into government with the ANC after that election, the fiscal prudence would not have been there. We would not have a rand that has grown in value in the past year, despite the Iran war.’ He says the reason for our relative stability is that ordinary South Africans are just immensely centrist, sensible, moderate and middle of the road. ‘We’re not a radicalised society. Unlike the US and the Middle East, where opposing political camps essentially are enemies. In terms of values, eight out of ten South Africans are in the same place, and that’s in a very good place.’
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For every opinion I seek from experts, I ask similar questions of ordinary South Africans. In this case, I had a conversation with the checkout cashier at my local supermarket while buying some mince and vegetables. I asked whether she thought Cyril Ramaphosa would resign. She shook her head emphatically. “He will never. He won’t go.’ I asked whether she thought he was a good president. ‘No, he is not.’ She predicted a bad showing for the ANC at the polls this year, re-emphasising that Cyril still won’t resign as a result of this. I wondered if she had an opinion on what might happen to the GNU. “The what? What does that mean eintlik?” I said it stood for the Government of National Unity, but I also quite frankly didn’t know exactly what it meant or how it differed from a minority government with coalitions and a traditional multiparty parliament, all of which consist of the same parties.
And yet, you would instantly know the difference between a frikkadel and the meatballs you serve with spaghetti, even though it is all mince and spice and chopped onion. Somehow, when you mix all the ingredients together in a new way and cook them slightly differently, it comes out as something else entirely. The taste of it is in the eating. The person who gets served the meal ends up paying the price.
Vivienne Vermaak is an award-winning journalist and keynote speaker. info@vivienne.co.za
The views of the writer are not necessarily the views of the Daily Friend or the IRR.
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