South Africa is heading to elections in October to choose new municipal governments across the country (assuming that they aren’t postponed as a consequence of the continuing Covid-19 pandemic). But what does the South African political landscape broadly look like –and what might that mean for the October poll?
Polling by the Institute of Race Relations (IRR) conducted at the end of last year showed that the governing African National Congress (ANC) was the party of choice of slightly fewer than half of respondents. The Democratic Alliance (DA) was polling at 14.3%, while the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) was nipping at their heels at 13.8%.
Broken down by race, the ANC was the most popular party amongst black South Africans, with the support of nearly 60%. The EFF had the support of nearly one in five black South Africans polled, while the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) and the DA were both at about 5%.
The DA was the most popular party among Coloured and white South Africans, with 55% and 51% support respectively. Amongst Indians, the DA was the single most popular party, although with the support of fewer than 50% of Indian respondents.
Broken down by employment status and levels of education there were also, unsurprisingly, differences in political party support. The EFF’s support was higher among young people while the DA’s, conversely, increased among older people.
Amongst unemployed people who were seeking work, the ANC had the support of just more than 50% of respondents while 17% supported the EFF and fewer than 10% the DA. Among people who were employed in the formal sector, the ANC was the party of choice for 43%, the DA nearly a fifth, and the EFF 14%. For those employed in the informal sector, the EFF had the support of nearly a quarter of respondents, the ANC just under half, and the DA just under 8%.
With regard to levels of education, the DA’s support was higher among those with higher levels of education. Only six percent of respondents with only a primary school education supported the DA, but the party was favoured by nearly a quarter of those with university degrees. This was also the case for the EFF, with nine percent of those with only a primary education saying they supported the Red Berets, rising to nearly 14% of those with a university education. The ANC had the support of more than two thirds of those with a primary education or less. It had the support of nearly a third of those with university degrees – meaning it was still the single most popular party among those with university education.
The IRR’s poll finding was similar to the results of polling by market research company Ipsos. Its Pule of the People survey, conducted in September last year, found that 50% of those surveyed supported the ANC, 16% the DA, while the EFF was the choice of 13%.
Fairly resilient
These polls seem to indicate that the ANC is remaining fairly resilient compared to its 2016 and 2019 election results (53% and 58% of the vote respectively). Despite the party’s continued corruption scandals andits hapless handling of the Covid crisis and vaccine rollout, its levels of support have remained fairly resilient.
This assessment is also borne out by recent by-election results. Since the easing of lockdown regulations, 173 by-elections have been held in municipal wards. Most of these wards were retained by the incumbent party, but a number changed hands, reflecting the ANC’s resilience and perhaps raising a warning for the DA.
Of the 25 seats that changed hands, the ANC won 15 and lost four. Conversely, the DA won only one seat off another party and lost 15 seats in the various by-elections. Most of the wards the DA lost tended to be in areas with a large number of coloured voters, with parties such as GOOD and the Patriotic Alliance (PA) being the beneficiaries of this rebuke of the DA. What will be of concern to the DA is that this decline in the coloured vote has been in rural and urban wards, in Gauteng and in the Western Cape, indicating this could be a broad decline rather than a localised phenomenon.
A similar trend with the DA and its white Afrikaner supporters could also be evident (in losses to the Freedom Front Plus), something which began in the 2019 election.
The EFF failed to win any ward seats in the various by-elections, although it did show surges in some areas, notably eThekwini, which will be something to watch.
A note of caution must be sounded when using by-elections to determine broader or national trends. By-elections can act as portents of how the electoral wind may blow, but they shouldn’t be taken as a reliable forecast. By-elections are often affected by local issues, and this has particularly been the case in a number of wards where the DA lost support among coloured voters. Often the candidate who snatched the ward off the DA was a former councillor for that party, or other local dynamics would have been at play. However, this does not mean that the DA should not be concerned about the continued haemorrhaging of votes in predominantly coloured communities.
In addition, municipal elections often have a national flavour, meaning that national issues (such as ANC corruption) can have an impact on how people vote at local level. An example is Johannesburg in 2016 where the (arguably) fairly competent ANC mayor of the city, Parks Tau, was voted out as a consequence of belonging to Jacob Zuma’s party. It is likely that national issues will again have at least some impact on how people vote, whether in Kuruman or Phalaborwa.
But what does this mean for the upcoming municipal elections? Reportedly, internal DA polls show the party holding steady at its 2016 vote share, which could mean the party could well replicate its phenomenal performance in that election. But the party’s continued slide in recent by-elections cannot be ignored, and it will be an extraordinary performance if it manages to achieve its 2016 result again.
Black voters
That said, the party has done fairly well in wards it has contested where black voters make up the majority. It will be one of South Africa’s great political ironies if the DA’s slide among coloured voters and white Afrikaners is cancelled out by a surge in support among black South Africans.
At the same time, the ANC is likely to lose support, particularly in urban areas. While the party lost relatively few wards in the various by-elections, the trend does seem to indicate that its support in cities may be a bit softer than before.
The EFF is likely to be its usual bombastic self, and call itself a ‘government-in-waiting’. However, while the odds of its winning a municipality outright (or even emerging as the single biggest party in any one municipality) are vanishingly small, it could be the kingmaker again in a number of places, as it was in 2016. In a number of urban areas, notably those in KwaZulu-Natal, the party has shown an increase in support levels.
Other parties to watch will be the IFP, particularly in northern KwaZulu-Natal, and what could be loosely described as ‘coloured’ interest parties, such as the PA, GOOD, or the Cape Coloured Congress, which will be looking to dip into the DA’s vote share in various places across the country.
This could well be the first election where the ANC’s national vote share falls below 50%. if this psychological barrier is breached, we will likely be seeing the beginning of the end of ANC dominance of South African politics, with all that this would bring for the country.
The real trend to watch, however, is the extent of non-voting. In 2019 over 20 million people who were eligible to vote did not do so. If even only ten percent of these people, who have checked out of the formal political process, decide to use their vote, it could be a game-changer for South African politics, and could be the black swan political event that some have predicted.
But we will have to wait until early November for the answer, when results are likely to be finalised. Until then, expect the usual bombast from the usual suspects – and when it comes to the results, perhaps expect the unexpected.
If you like what you have just read, support the Daily Friend