“The idea of Cape Independence is like putting a unicorn in charge of the rainbow.”
Is Cape Independence a reasonable and viable idea? Or is it just giving the SA rainbow a new coat of paint because the old one is losing its lustre? I spoke to a few experts, got a feel for it on the ground and surveyed some podcasts to come to a position for myself.
My first stop was to hear what Frans Cronje has to say. He is an important barometer to me. His worldview allows for complexity, and I like the tone he takes as a South African. He has great knowledge of and respect for our various cultures and ideologies, including the ANC’s. These qualities are all well combined in a new media platform he recently founded, called The Common Sense. The centre, centre-right media space is getting crowded, so people with that leaning are spoilt for choice.
A highlight of watching the birth of something is witnessing its teething problems. Podcasts are visual, so you can see what is happening. On the radio, you might not have noticed anything was amiss. Cronje introduces his ‘brand new, tech-based media startup company’ boasting world-class data, analysis and use of AI-powered information sourcing, but then gets something elementary wrong – they put the microphone right between him and the camera, so you can’t see his face. If they had moved the microphone to the other side of the desk, it would have solved the problem. It is an impressive microphone; quite large, no doubt top of the range and very advanced, but it hides the speaker, so it’s not good for a podcast viewer, except to revel in the observation that it is very amusing to see the juxtaposition of integrated media platforms stumbling in the area that cannot be AI’d – human judgement. Another delicious entry-level oops was that the host didn’t introduce himself. Neither were there captions explaining who he was. He was clearly reading his introduction from a second screen, so the darting eye contact and awkward body language were pleasurably visible. I was looking at this laaitie thinking: “Sweetheart, you are so young and pretty, but you have to learn your words, okay?” I am sure these crinkles have been ironed out, and The Common Sense continues to deliver well-articulated, future-focused scenario planning for concerned South Africans.
On Cape Independence, Cronje says the trend shows that it is a certainty, if not de jure then de facto. It is one of those Nostradamussy statements that ensures that, whatever happens, he will be correct, if not actually, then technically. He positions the concept of ‘secession’ as a broad term that could mean a type of organic balkanisation, which might just mean people retreating into enclaves behind high walls in security complexes, which has already been happening for decades. This is not what groups like CAPEXIT and I are talking about. We are curious about a scenario wherein the Cape secedes as a separate constitutional entity with a border and its own tax base. A good tip when listening to futurists is to watch out for big five-syllable words and the use of Latin. Translated, it means that Cape Independence will definitely happen, and if it doesn’t, it has already happened. While speaking to Alec Hogg of Biznews, Cronje adds that South Africa is an exciting and unpredictable place, so it might happen differently.
The right-leaning podcasts appear more certain on the issue, also more fiery and strident. In conversation, Ernst Roets and Phil Craig of the Cape Independence Advocacy Group hammer the point that the Western Cape have the right to secede. On this point, they are correct. “Why secede?” asks Craig. “We have problems in South Africa. But there is a fundamental difference between how the Western Cape thinks we should address the problems. We never voted for the ANC. We have a right to be governed by the people we voted for.” It is a reasonable argument and the emotional ticket they are campaigning on to call for a referendum on the issue.
The left-leaning podcasts point out that the right-leaning podcasters are sublimating racist bigotries and privilege under the guise of independence and ideology. “It’s the typical ‘us’ vs ‘them’ type thinking. It looks and tastes awful. It’s bad.” Rebecca Davies of The Daily Maverick says that, while the President can call for a referendum, the results might not necessarily be binding, as it is a national matter which will require many other adjustments to the law-making structures. “It is simply impossible to imagine a world where South African politics and the law align to allow one of the nine provinces to assert itself as a separate country, especially since even parties like the DA do not support the idea. As such, the Cape Exit party seems to be selling voters a pipe dream.” There is much in this position that I am aligned with as well.
My last podcast pitstop was to check in with the biggest podcast in the country, Mac G’s Podcast and Chill. His subscribers are at 1.6 million for his YouTube channel alone, and the vibe is the opposite of the sober, suited, spreadsheeted caution of Cronje. The studio is filled with raucous laughter and alcohol, yet don’t underestimate the incisive insight offered here. While the show is not overtly political or presents itself as such, one can assume the influences here are from a socialist, communist or collectivist infusion by virtue of cultural heritage. This is the pulse of the majority of the youth. Dip in every now and again to test the waters of the country you live in. Guests are often comedians, who themselves are a special breed of commentator. The moment you can be witty about something, it means not only have you thought it through, but you have added a creative and clever angle to it. In this episode, the studio guest was Trevor Gumbi, a successful comedian and resident of Gauteng. When asked what he thought of residents of Cape Town who can’t afford rent because of all the foreigners moving in, he said, “Poor them, then they must move to somewhere they can afford.” The studio was left a bit stunned by this. Gumbi believes in open borders, especially for Africans. “I pay my rates and taxes, and levies. What did you do to want to live next door to me now? You’ll never meet one of my neighbours, because I’ve worked so hard that I do not have to see neighbours.” A neat summary of enclavement plus the principles of libertarianism and independence in an utterly surprising socialist package.
Ultimately, it was not famous entertainers, highly regarded analysts or fiery rhetoric that helped me position myself on the matter, but a meticulous bureaucrat with a penchant for connecting bigger socio-political dots. I interviewed an urban planner who has worked with the SA government, the World Bank and countries across Africa to guide infrastructure investment in the face of rapid urbanisation. He showed me the stats of the rate of immigration into the Cape and the unattainability of formal development matching informal demand. He explained how local and provincial entities are hamstrung by legal and constitutional frameworks by the national government, rendering independence unviable in practical terms, even if a referendum on the issue were called. He cautioned about the collapse of Stats SA and how it would be impossible to work out who was a taxpayer for the New Independent Cape in the first place, never mind administering their tax. These unaccounted-for taxpayers would be asked to pay for a border and border patrol for a citizenry that would be ill-defined in the first place. Finally, he pointed out that there was no succession plan for the major urban planners in the province. The knowledge pool will be empty when the current crop soon retires.
What do I think will happen in the future? Taking some tips from the forecasters, I would say the trend shows that the future is blue. Azure. However, don’t disallow the possibility that it might be yellow. So the future is green. Emerald. That is why we are the rainbow nation. And if it doesn’t happen the way I predicted, it has already happened.
My vote: I will support the idea of a referendum on the issue of Cape independence. It is fun to argue with people, and it invigorates the concept of democracy. But I am choosing life as it is; complicated, difficult, extraordinary. We are first world and third world and the future all in one, with a mountain in the corner. I want to make a real and positive contribution to my country as it is. As. It. Is. Not as it should be or could have been in an imaginary world. Cape Independence is like putting a unicorn in charge of the rainbow. It is a ‘No’ from me.
Viva!
The views of the writer are not necessarily the views of the Daily Friend or the IRR.
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