With the pageantry of the G20 summit over, and the diplomatic spat between the United States and South Africa continuing to blaze, hotter than ever without any sign of an end, it seems prudent to me to review why exactly this spat is even a thing.
What does America want from South Africa?
To answer that, it seems to me we must assume the diplomats and the policy wonks over in Washington are rational actors, whose primary interest and incentives are about furthering the interests of America across the world while countering China’s growing influence, especially in Africa.
To me at least, that is the only way to make sense of utterances out of Washington concerning Greenland, Canada, Gaza and even South Africa. All these places have in common key strategic trade corridors integral to America’s continued prosperity and interests in the future. The whole refugee business is quite frankly a mummer’s farce, and any experienced and seasoned South African diplomat should see it as such, and consider our own country’s interests and future in relation to America.
In short, what I am proposing is that South Africa ignore the American president’s boorishness and the mummer’s farce and focus on actually developing a strategy to horse-trade with the world’s largest economy and domestic market for the benefit of the country.
What should we want from America?
For a start, an immediate end to all tariffs that are hurting our citrus, wine, beef, fruits, nuts and automotive and other key industries, while securing preferential access to America’s domestic market for those industries, as well as an export-driven textile industry that could be placed inside the Coega SEZ in Nelson Mandela Bay. That industry should be the preferential supplier of fast fashion to America with targeted policy from our side to make it competitive.
We should also seek a formal designation as America’s African industrial hub, something the Americans would gladly take on, because we are still Africa’s most developed country. This should come with the attendant financing and investment infrastructure, and by that, I mean that South Africa becomes the US’s African industrial hub for EV’s, critical minerals, (manganese, vanadium, rare earths), aerospace and defence components, with additional US support to build processing plants here in South Africa that would move South Africa from a mere raw-materials exporter to a value-added manufacturer. In other words, as the current government would describe it, we should make sure South Africa “beneficiates”.
It is important here to say that of course the Americans would require real steps forward in terms of infrastructure (ports, rail and electricity), and significant improvements in what I can only describe as crime and corruption tech systems. This is a mutually beneficial arrangement, as America needs a reliable logistics partner in Africa, and we need extensive infrastructure rehabilitation. This could all be facilitated through financing by a combination of USAID, the US International Development Finance Corporation, etc.
I think it is important for me to say here that the lens through which all this is happening is that America requires a stable, reliable African partner that will be a bulwark and counter-weight against growing Chinese influence. As such, South Africa should not be shy to put forward ambitious demands, as long as the Americans can see mutual benefit and the primary objective of safeguarding and expanding American interests.
I say that South Africa should also, perhaps cheekily, ask the Americans to transform that farcical refugee programme into a specially designated visa for “gifted” South Africans in critical industries to further themselves at America’s elite institutions, with a “come home” stipulation attached to it. This can be even extended to providing research grants for American and South African universities and the sharing of knowledge, as well as social capital endeavours between the two countries.
If it were up to me, (and perhaps this is a bridge too far, but it won’t hurt to ask), I would like South Africans to get EU-level access to the USA, subject to the Americans being satisfied that Leon Schreiber and the brass at home affairs have the systems sewn up to their expectations so they can vet everyone thoroughly.
Lastly, because I am a South African supremacist and exceptionalist, I would ask for defence and security co-operation with the Americans in the form of access to US training and technology in cyber-defence, maritime security, anti-smuggling and anti-piracy policies, and intelligence-sharing, with a look to a future in which there are joint exercises to NATO-interoperability standards.
The Americans want maritime stability. We control the Cape sea route, and we benefit overall, because I personally would like to see a future in which South Africa is Africa’s security guarantor and a true facilitator of African intra-trade. From a personal level, what happened in the Congo should have been a huge wake-up call. Having a tinpot dictator of a Potemkin village like Kagame having a war of words with our country was embarrassing, and a potential threat to our national security in the future.
I realise the view I have spelled out here is still a deeply unpopular view within South Africa itself, especially amongst our political, media and academic elites, but it is a view I believe needs expressing: a view which may become more palatable as the sands of political power shift through to the 2030s.
[Image: https://diplomatique.org.br/trump-o-retorno/]
The views of the writer are not necessarily the views of the Daily Friend or the IRR.
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