This is the second edition of a monthly feature highlighting some of the latest research by the Centre for Risk Analysis (CRA) on political, economic and geopolitical events affecting South African businesses.
CRA clients receive a range of weekly and monthly reports, including Client Notes. Published on an ad hoc basis, Client Notes provide real-time analysis of a topical feature of current events.
The following is a selection from this month’s Client Notes, featuring analysis of port performance, the “30 June” shutdown threat, and Johannesburg’s tariff increases.
Ports: South Africa leads the world in improvement, trails it in performance
In this note, CRA Executive Director Chris Hattingh unpacks the 2025 Container Port Performance Index. It shows that South Africa recorded some of the world’s strongest port efficiency gains. Durban achieved the largest single-year improvement globally, Coega (Ngqura) was ranked among the top five most-improved ports, and Port Elizabeth led all ports in cumulative improvement since 2020. But these gains come off an extremely weak base and the country’s main ports still rank near the bottom of the 400-port index.
The improvements matter because port turnaround times directly affect freight costs, export competitiveness, supply chain reliability, investor confidence, and growth.
Durban’s recovery, supported by reduced waiting times, higher berth utilisation, and the ICTSI concession at Pier 2, is an important reform signal. Cape Town ranks last globally, Durban remains 398th, and Coega (Ngqura) 380th, while regional peers such as Maputo, Beira, and Walvis Bay continue to outperform South Africa’s largest terminals.
Hattingh writes: “While the short-term trajectory is positive, South Africa’s absolute port rankings remain dire.” He notes that the policies and legislation underlying inefficiencies remain unchanged, and that monitoring Durban’s performance is key.
Who is exposed to “30 June” events?
In this note, CRA research associate Ofentse Davhie writes about exposure to the 30 June “deadline” set by anti-migration activists for undocumented foreigners to leave the country. Davhie writes: “The instinctive reaction is to treat the deadline as a blanket risk to doing business in South Africa. That instinct is wrong, and acting on it is costly.”
The CRA’s five-condition model is applied: whether a business employs, or is perceived to employ, foreign nationals; whether it is visible and publicly accessible; whether it is in an active mobilisation geography; whether it operates in a sector associated with the “taking jobs” narrative; and whether its assets are fixed and difficult to disperse or harden.
High-exposure firms include consumer-facing, single-site businesses such as informal retail, restaurants, small retail, freight, hospitality, agriculture, construction, private security, and personal services. High-risk areas include Durban, the East Rand, Johannesburg and Pretoria inner cities, surrounding townships, and selected Western Cape flashpoints, where intimidation, forced closures, demands to dismiss staff, and property damage could occur.
Davhie writes: “For the businesses genuinely exposed under the model, the priority is to confirm risk appetite explicitly at the executive level.” He therefore advises monitoring local mobilisation and target lists, establishing clear tripwires and closure protocols, and hardening or temporarily dispersing exposed sites. Lower-exposure firms in risk areas should prepare separately for looting through stock-security plans, access-route monitoring, and delegated decision-making authority.
City of Johannesburg tariff increases: implications for household budgets and businesses
CRA Economic Policy Analyst and Research Coordinator Anlu Keeve focused on the approved R97.1 billion 2026/27 Johannesburg budget, which raises municipal tariffs from 1 July 2026.
The approved average increases for service tariffs include water (12.5%), sanitation (11%), electricity (8.63%), refuse removal (6.2%) and property rates (3.6%). The increases add to pressure on households and businesses already facing high costs and the removal of national fuel-levy relief.
Although the increases are smaller than in 2025/26, their full impact will depend on consumption, property values, tariff categories, rebates, and free allocations, with electricity likely to remain the largest rand contributor to household bills. Water- or energy-intensive businesses are most exposed.
Keeve built a calculator that estimates a household’s municipal bill before and after 1 July to gauge the pressure on customers and employees.
She writes: “The greater risk is the combined effect over a full year. As higher municipal costs work through monthly bills for twelve months, households are likely to cut non-municipal spending by more than the tariff numbers alone suggest, and that squeeze will worsen as fuel prices keep rising.”
Keeve warns that the broader risk is not only higher bills but weaker discretionary demand, thinner margins, delayed investment, and under-recovery by the city as the November 2026 local government elections constrain enforcement and collections.
For more on the CRA’s products and services, which include Risk Alerts and Strategic Intelligence Briefings, go to https://cra-sa.com/ Contact Chris Hattingh at chris@cra-sa.com