If reports are true − that following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s call on Monday night (IST) with US President Donald Trump, he phoned South African President Cyril Ramaphosa − then it could be very bad news for peace between Russia and Ukraine, but (theoretically) quite good news for South Africa’s embattled President.
This would have been revealed while the European delegation was still in the White House, and presumably met with understandable consternation. Volodymyr Zelenskyy would have been puzzled, scratching his head then calculating on his hands the number of times Ramaphosa has switched sides in the war’s duration.
Ursula von der Leyen would have scribbled a diktat: “Note to the diplomatic corps: the next time that South African spokesperson goes driving around Waterkloof looking for Ambassadors to say nice things about the country, ignore, and carry on with washing your car naked.” Emmanuel Macron, painfully keen to be seen doing something with some point, would have been equally annoyed. Not a good year as trips go; get slapped around by wife (or dad) on one, lose opportunity to make Ukrainian and Russian peace all about him on another.
Keir Starmer would have been especially torn, walking around the bathrooms with his fist in his mouth desperately trying to remember whether there was some unconscious bias component to the word “bastard” in his latest DEI coursework. Like Macron, Starmer feels he needs to play a role here; Fabians are quite good at aggravating fights; they haven’t quite mastered ending them yet.
Before this would have emerged, the Europeans were already shaken by the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) guy who went to Tehran to discuss what appear to be gender studies modules with his Iranian counterpart. That’s a bit rich: some of these leaders have been active in unleashing these forces within their own societies.
But Trump would be the one most cross, enraged by the sequence of an animated Ramaphosa squeaking, “Look at me, I am the peace now.” Not good. Perhaps jail might have been better after all, Trump may lament.
Loitering on the periphery
Putin is a cunning bastard, but even the appearance of Ramaphosa playing any sort of role here, however tangential, is particularly sly. Trump has recently ended an African war 31 years in the making − the same war during which Ramaphosa failed at negotiating even a ceasefire, and yet here he is, in the 47th US President’s toughest challenge, loitering on the periphery − or worse.
So what would happen, you wonder, if Ramaphosa asked Putin to give him a solid proposal? “…Some conditions in an appendix to the peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine…this bloody tariff thing, this questioning of comprehensively failed redress legislation…criticism of my national dialogue…Starlink moaning about having to dispense with 30% of its equity…must all end.”
Putin is a transactional creature with delusions of grandeur. Even sympathetic local scholars, aware that Beijing recently gave South Africa short shrift when a delegation rocked up to complain about US tariffs, would agree that South Africa could offer Putin very little at this point, save Pezula Golf Course on the Garden Route, which could technically be expropriated in the “national interest” and turned into a classic Putin compound for his retirement. Problem for Putin would be that, at some point, he’d have to interface with the Knysna municipality − all ANC guys who’ve made light work of wrecking the place. It will most likely be a pass.
But perhaps just the presence is enough; enough to wind up, annoy, unleash paranoia gremlins. Were Trump to ask Putin to bin whatever he’s got going on with the South African President on this matter, Putin could play Starmer’s defence of London’s hopeless Mayor Sadiq Khan last month (“but he’s my friend”) − or worse.
In a scenario where the world’s most underperforming and worst value-for-money President (Ramaphosa) finds himself, courtesy of Putin, being able to extract a few concessions as part of any deal (Americans will be familiar with the concept of the completely irrelevant being included in things like “infrastructure bills”), you’d expect that tariffs would be discussed. And you’d expect wrong.
Hyper-ideological necessities
The first things Ramaphosa would seek would be the scrapping of any ‘targeted sanctions’ against firstly, himself and his family, then secondly, people in his ANC grouping (“call your cowboys in the House off”). Then there would be a suite of hyper-ideological necessities thrust upon US firms in SA − useful, Ramaphosa would believe, to show voters that he won’t be shoved around by imperialists. This would be just in time for municipal elections. Oh, and funding for the ANC to contest those too.
But our fears are exaggerated. Not even the Europeans are playing the role they crave − and one country shares an 800-mile border and tragic history with Russia. The press remarked that Ramaphosa’s call with Putin “emphasises South Africa’s importance in brokering peace around the world”. Carnival bollocks. The only people who can − will − do anything are Zelenskyy, Putin and Trump.
Meanwhile every single nerve and sinew in South Africa is screaming out for its leader to put his head down; listen, if for the first time in his life, plug the dike. Dispense with the theatrics, whether they be talk-shops or performance solos at The Hague. When the Russian President calls, have someone politely explain that another dozen or so people died on the Cape Flats the past weekend. So, sorry, busy.
The views of the writer are not necessarily the views of the Daily Friend or the IRR.
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