South Africa’s relations with the US can only further deteriorate while the Trump administration remains in power. And as long as the ANC is in power in SA, and a Republican administration continues in Washington, the standoff will continue.
Even if Trump is a lame-duck President after the November mid-term elections, he will still have a free hand to continue to put pressure on SA.
That is why the stand-off will deteriorate and last some time.
In a sign that the stand-off may turn into a crisis, the US Ambassador to Pretoria, Leo Brent Bozell III, declared that “talking is over” with SA on the key US demands.
Foreign minister Ronald Lamola’s response was to say that “if you can’t talk as a diplomat … get out of the kitchen.”
SA followed up by issuing Bozell with a third démarche – in this case a formal message to dress him down for “undiplomatic behaviour”.
Three dressing-downs from the host in less than a year just might show that he is doing the job he was sent to do in SA. He was sent here to highlight the Trump message to the ANC and the five demands.
Bozell uses the terms “five asks” to describe what are in effect demands for SA to do the following:
- Effectively fight against rural crime and make this a priority;
- Condemn racial hate speech, including the “Kill the Boer, Kill the Farmer” chant;
- Amend the law allowing expropriation without compensation to allow for market-related compensation in the event of the government expropriating property;
- Not require US companies to adhere to black empowerment restrictions, and
- Pursue a real policy of non-alignment by ending close ties with US adversaries, including Russia, China and Iran.
The time for talking might well have run out, because these are demands, not points of negotiation. There is therefore no room for a fudging of the issues through couched language to engineer a compromise.
Propaganda value
The fight has been long in coming and was probably chosen by the Trump administration even before various Afrikaner groups began to visit Washington. Trump probably took up the charge that there is white genocide in SA more out of its propaganda value than the objective truth of the claim.
For the Trump administration, the ANC is abhorrent because it views SA as siding with the enemies of the US and it pursues policies of black economic empowerment. That’s an extension of the administration’s own internal war on diversity, equity and inclusion policy in the US.
For the ANC, the Trump administration is the embodiment of Western imperialism. That is why this battle is so full of fervour on both sides, and why any deal is highly unlikely.
The US demands hurt and embarrass the ANC as they go to the heart of the party’s project and its failures.
Our murder rates are among the highest in the world, and the murder rate of farmers is astronomically high.
Racial hate speech such as the “Kill the Boer” chant emerged out of the struggle era, and the ANC just cannot get itself to condemn its use. That is a major failure.
As pointed out by Terence Corrigan in his Daily Friend column earlier this week, a document recently put out by the Thabo Mbeki Foundation says that if the ANC were to abandon its policy trajectory it would amount to a political defeat and there could be violence.
Transformation, which is largely based on racial preferences in hiring, ownership and procurement, is at the core of the ANC project. And that is why it cannot be easily abandoned. Abandonment would certainly amount to a backdown and a political defeat, particularly in the face of mounting US pressure.
Politically impossible
That is precisely why it is all but politically impossible for the ANC to give US companies an exclusion from black empowerment requirements. Besides, granting US companies an exclusion would open the doors to a backdown on the entire transformation programme.
Because the Freedom Charter calls for public ownership to serve the well-being of the people, there is an emotional tie in the ANC to the idea of expropriation without compensation.
Both the US and SA must be aware that there is little or no room for a deal on the five US demands. So the battle is really about both standing their ground and, for the US, ratcheting up the pressure.
So far, the US has said it will deny visas to those who have promoted “race-based discrimination”, “incitement of violence”, and implementing policies allowing for “uncompensated land seizures”.
Bozell has said that other punitive measures could be in the offing. All that could make the lives of senior ANC, EFF and MK officials a lot more difficult. The US could impose bans on the relatives of senior politicians from entering the US, or freeze their assets held with US financial institutions.
How bad can this get?
Build pride
There will be a lot more threatening statements from both sides. For the US, that helps raise the issues in its demands. And for the ANC, that helps build pride and mobilise its supporters. Sanctions in various forms are unlikely.
The Trump administration has little international sympathy, so all this won’t for the moment damage SA’s position in the world. But it does highlight that SA has an outrageously high crime rate, that BEE is doing damage and that we are not really non-aligned.
The ANC could try to mobilise around the deteriorating relations with the US. Ramaphosa could give a strident speech repeating, “We will not be bullied,” a phrase he used in a State of the Nation Address and at the G-20 Summit last year in speaking about the US. As ANC support wanes, this could be used as the party’s rallying cry against what is made out to be an external threat from the US. But with high unemployment and poor service delivery, this might be viewed by the electorate as a ruse.
The ANC’s next step might be to expel the Ambassador. That would be an overreaction and the next Trump appointee would deliver the same message. Worse would be if Washington did not even bother to send a replacement.
The ANC might be waiting in the hope that Trump is turned into a lame-duck President in the upcoming mid-term elections in November, and a moderate Democrat is elected President in two years’ time. Even a moderate Democrat would not be happy about SA trying to pass off its close ties with Russia, China and Iran as non-alignment.
For any easing in relations with the US, political change is required in SA.
The US is intent on pushing its demands and SA is intent on making a show of standing up to the superpower. That can’t end well for SA. It will at the least narrow our options and make things difficult.
[Image: by Angelov1]
The views of the writer are not necessarily the views of the Daily Friend or the IRR.
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